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Which new NBC shows will be a hit?

We don’t need to tell you that NBC is invested in social TV. They recently had an entire NewFront dedicated to digital and social that we covered in depth. Monday’s NBC’s traditional upfront took place where they revealed their new programming. Networked Insights (NI), who announced an upfronts partnership with IPG Mediabrands in the fall, provided Lost Remote with their predictions on what brands should and shouldn’t buy among the new content.

Sean Reckwerdt, Networked Insights’ lead analyst and cultural anthropologist explained how they use social data to help brands make the right media buy decision during the upfront season:

Networked Insights uses their real-time analytics on data models they call “lookalike shows” (EX: One of ABC’s “666 Park Avenue” lookalikes would be “American Horror Story”) to understand what content (the actors, the characters, the narrative-themes, etc.) that makes a particular show social and if it is something that could be duplicated by another show. They combine that with a deep analysis of the cast and crew attached to the new pilot, and their own ongoing real-time viewer trending analysis to inform their clients on where to place media spend and how to unlock new audiences.

Here are the three NBC recommendations from NI and why:

-1600 Penn – Viewers of Modern Family love to share content with each other, and can’t get enough of the show, more of the same from Modern Family’s creator looks like a win for media buyers.

-Revolution – While the fanfare over J.J. Abrams is not what it used to be, this show (below) is peaking a lot of viewer interest because of Eric Kipke, the creator of Supernatural, who’s helped create a generation of super-fans for the CW.

-The New Normal – Although Ryan Murphy’s writing style does appeal to everyone, being the Co-creator of Glee will certainly, and has already, attracted the interests of many viewers

NI also took a deep look into shows they they’re recommending brands not buy. They provided Lost Remote exclusively with a deep dive into Next Caller, featuring Dane Cook:

-The reaction towards the official season order of Next Caller trended very negatively (-16%)
-The viewers that did react to the news skewed towards an older and more female demographic
-The decision to order a season of this show reflected poorly upon NBC’s image
-The viewers that dislike the idea of this show tended to be fans of other NBC shows, in particular 30 Rock, The Office, Parks and Recreation, and Awake
-Those same individuals also seem to dislike the show Whitney
-Twitter is changing the way the Upfronts conversations are emerging – last year the show news were mostly distributed through hardcore TV Fans specific/Entertainment-focused verticals like TVGuide.com and TVbythenumbers, this year they’re still being distributed in those locations, but now there are a lot more instant reactions being shared on Twitter
-Using Networked Insights real-time analytics to model and predict the Upfronts this year, we identified that this show would do poorly (and the emerging conversations so far continue to support that prediction) and as a result advised our clients against placing any media spend on it

Media buyers beware that social TV is about to drastically change the traditional TV buying decisions you make. Networked Insights is forcing the conversation and boldly providing insights to help brands be more predictive than ever before.

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